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Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely

Don A. Moore
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A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and perseve... Read More
A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and perseverance in the face of adversity. However, if that confidence leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can be a waste of time, money, and energy. Popular lore—supported by a cottage industry of self-help books and motivational speakers—tells us the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can get us into an enormous amount of trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self. In fact, we are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring the best psychological and economic studies to bear in order to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be your friend, and when an excess of it can be your worst enemy. Confidence is indeed a useful tool, but only when you hold it right. Confidence is a form of personal prediction that takes into account both your feelings and the facts. You do have choices about how confident to be but choosing to be overconfident is rarely in your interest. Well-calibrated, adaptive confidence is what we should strive for. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Don Moore answers these questions by exploring the ways confidence behaves in real life, how to avoid overconfidence and under-confidence and how one can maintain well-calibrated confidence. Read Less

Additional Information
  • Contributor(s)Don A. Moore
  • About the Contributor(s) Don Moore is a Professor of Management of Organizations at the University of California at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business,...Don Moore is a Professor of Management of Organizations at the University of California at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, where he teaches popular courses in leadership, negotiations, and decision-making. He also consults on these topics. With Max Bazerman, he is the coauthor of Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, one of the bestselling textbooks in the field. Additionally, Moore was one of the principal investigators on the Good Judgment Project, a forecasting tournament sponsored by the U.S. government’s Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The forecasters involved established an excellent record predicting the outcomes of major world events, and this project was chronicled by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner in their 2015 book, Superforecasting. Moore has authored or coauthored columns published by The New Yorker, The Wall Street Journal, Businessweek, Fortune, Forbes Leadership Forum, USA Today, San Francisco Chronicle, Harvard Business Review, the Harvard Negotiation Newsletter, and others. His work has been covered in The New York Times, Money, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, the Financial Times, The New Yorker, Businessweek, Forbes, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, The Washington Post, the Christian Science Monitor, USA Today, Entrepreneur, PBS’s Nightly Business Report, CNN, NPR, KCBS, PredictablyIrrational.com, Freakonomics.com, and numerous other media outlets and websites. Moore writes a blog entitled Perfectly Confident for Psychology Today. show more
  • ISBN-139780062887771
  • Publish Date05/26/2020
  • PublisherHarperBusiness
  • Format eBook
  • LanguageEnglish
  • Pages320
  • Price $15.99

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